Super El Niño Threatens 70%-100% California Rain Odds as Western US Flood Risk Rises
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Aug 8
Super El Niño Threatens 70%-100% California Rain Odds as Western US Flood Risk Rises
3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Aug 8
Summary
NOAA-backed forecasts show this century’s strongest El Niño could intensify through fall, last until early spring 2027 and bring a notably wetter winter to California and other western US areas.
California’s coast faces a 70%-100% chance of above-average rainfall, with scientists warning strong storms and king tides could amplify coastal flooding, erosion and cliff undercutting.
Past El Niño winters show the stakes: the 1997-98 event brought massive California flooding and 17 deaths, while a 1998 Florida tornado outbreak killed 42 people and caused more than $100 million in damage.
The pattern also raises precipitation odds along the Gulf and East coasts, but experts say it will not automatically end Southwest drought because reservoirs are so depleted that only exceptionally wet conditions would make a major dent.
Scientists say the event is also a climate stress test, exposing where California and other vulnerable regions need to prepare for flooding and sea-level impacts that resemble future warming risks.