El Niño Lifts Cocoa 63% and Coffee 30% as 97% Odds Point to 2027 Disruption
Updated
Updated · Financial Times · Aug 7
El Niño Lifts Cocoa 63% and Coffee 30% as 97% Odds Point to 2027 Disruption
3 articles · Updated · Financial Times · Aug 7
Summary
$6,455-a-tonne cocoa and $3.12-a-pound arabica coffee have become early flashpoints as traders price crop damage across West Africa, Brazil and south-east Asia from a strengthening El Niño.
NOAA last month put the odds at 97% that El Niño lasts into spring 2027 and 81% that it turns very strong this autumn, raising the risk of drought, heat and excessive rain across key growing regions.
Fertiliser shortages tied to the US-Iran war are compounding the threat, with the FAO warning that lower applications in major producers such as Australia and India could hit wheat and rice yields.
Peru has already suspended anchovy fishing because unusually warm Pacific waters made stocks vulnerable, sending fishmeal prices to more than double a year ago and fish oil to more than triple since July 2025.
The ECB estimates strong El Niño events lift global food commodity prices 9%, and the WFP warns the current episode could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by end-2027.
With global food systems fracturing under El Niño, which everyday grocery staple will be the first to face severe rationing by 2027?
As extreme weather and fertilizer shortages collide, could this unprecedented agricultural shock force a complete redesign of global food supply chains?
While droughts devastate traditional crops, could unexpected agricultural booms in heavily flooded regions offset the looming 2027 global food crisis?