European Model Sees California Winter Rain Jumping 40%-70% as El Niño Warms Pacific by 5F
Updated
Updated · Yahoo! Voices · Aug 5
European Model Sees California Winter Rain Jumping 40%-70% as El Niño Warms Pacific by 5F
2 articles · Updated · Yahoo! Voices · Aug 5
Summary
A 51-run European Center forecast gives California a better than 90% chance of above-normal December-February precipitation, with at least a 70% chance of well-above-normal totals.
The model projects many coastal areas getting 40%-70% more rain than normal; San Francisco could top 20 inches for the period, roughly 6 to 8 inches above average.
Record-warm eastern tropical Pacific waters — nearly 5F above normal on Aug. 5 — are strengthening an east-based El Niño that typically drives more frequent, moisture-laden storms into California.
NOAA and Environment Canada models point the same way, though forecasters caution seasonal models are low-resolution and can overstate local totals along California's terrain.
Wet conditions may begin as early as October or November, while higher snow lines, coastal water levels up to 1 foot above normal and greater flooding risk could widen the winter impacts.