Jefferies Sees Gold Rebounding From $4,000 as 10-Year Real Yields Climb to 2.41%
Updated
Updated · Kitco NEWS · Aug 4
Jefferies Sees Gold Rebounding From $4,000 as 10-Year Real Yields Climb to 2.41%
3 articles · Updated · Kitco NEWS · Aug 4
Summary
Jefferies said gold can recover later this year and into 2027 even after being pinned near $4,000 an ounce and selling off about 25% from its peak.
10-year TIPS real yields have risen to about 2.41% from 1.94% at the start of 2026 as markets swung from pricing 1-2 rate cuts to 1-2 hikes, with the first increase expected in September.
The firm said that repricing has already reset gold and gold equities, and that what matters now is whether real-rate pressure starts to ease rather than the absolute level of yields.
Jefferies tied the inflation shock to the U.S.-Israel war with Iran and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupted roughly 30% of global oil supply and kept energy prices high.
Supportive longer-term drivers still include central-bank buying, geopolitical risk, fiscal concerns, de-dollarization and hard-asset demand; Jefferies said a U.S.-Iran war resolution or an AI capex bust could quickly shift rate expectations.