Updated
Updated · TheStreet · Aug 3
US 30-Year Yield Hits 5.25% as Fed Hold Fuels September Hike Odds Above 60%
Updated
Updated · TheStreet · Aug 3

US 30-Year Yield Hits 5.25% as Fed Hold Fuels September Hike Odds Above 60%

3 articles · Updated · TheStreet · Aug 3

Summary

  • The 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.25% Friday—the highest since 2007—while the 10-year topped 4.73%, even after the Fed left rates unchanged.
  • Three FOMC dissents favoring a hike and no clear signal on the policy path led long-bond investors to demand more compensation, pushing September hike odds above 60% and December odds near 85%.
  • Those higher long-term rates threaten to squeeze debt-funded data-center spending just as Big Tech ramps capital expenditures, making financing costs a bigger market risk after earnings season.
  • Oil still above pre-conflict levels after Iran deal claims and denials is keeping inflation pressure alive, while Friday’s jobs report could either ease rate fears with another weak print or strengthen the hawks’ case.

Insights

As Warsh abandons forward guidance, how high will unchecked Treasury yields push everyday mortgage and corporate debt costs?
Could the central bank's sudden silence on future rate paths spark a dangerous wave of uncoordinated market panic?
Will the Fed's reliance on bond vigilantes successfully crush inflation, or accidentally trigger a devastating borrowing crisis?