Updated
Updated · Morningstar · Aug 4
Morningstar Finds 5 of 7 Key Assets Above Average as Gold Drops Nearly 25% From $5,400 Peak
Updated
Updated · Morningstar · Aug 4

Morningstar Finds 5 of 7 Key Assets Above Average as Gold Drops Nearly 25% From $5,400 Peak

1 articles · Updated · Morningstar · Aug 4

Summary

  • Five of seven assets in Morningstar’s latest Market Thermometer still sit above their 20-year averages, though the overall picture is less stretched than six months ago.
  • Gold at about $4,026 an ounce by June 30 remains elevated despite falling nearly 25% from its January peak above $5,400, while Morningstar says mean-reversion risk still argues for caution.
  • U.S. valuations also remain rich: the Morningstar US Market Index P/E stayed near the high end of its 20-year range, and real housing prices are close to prior peaks.
  • Cash and bonds look more attractive than in the zero-rate era, with the fed-funds midpoint at 3.64% and 3-month Treasury bills at 3.86%, slightly above 3.5% inflation.
  • Only Brent crude and bitcoin screen below or relatively low versus history, while a still-high dollar index of 120.92 points to the case for international diversification.

Insights

With US stocks and housing near historic highs, could the AI boom permanently shatter our traditional valuation benchmarks?
As central banks hoard gold and diversify reserves, what hidden triggers might spark the next massive crypto ETF inflow?
If soaring insurance and compliance costs squeeze landlords, how will the increasingly unaffordable housing market finally correct itself?