Traders Split on Fed's July 29 Rate Move as 30% Price Quarter-Point Hike
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 24
Traders Split on Fed's July 29 Rate Move as 30% Price Quarter-Point Hike
3 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 24
Summary
Swaps markets put the odds of a July 29 Federal Reserve rate increase at about 30%, leaving traders divided just days before the decision.
Kevin Warsh has fueled that uncertainty by abandoning the usual practice of signaling the Fed's next move in advance, a break from recent chairs' communication style.
The benchmark rate decision in question is a 0.25-percentage-point move, with markets still assigning a 70% chance that policymakers hold rates steady.
Such a close-to-meeting split has been rare in recent years, suggesting Warsh's less telegraphed approach could make Fed meetings harder for markets to predict.