Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 24
UK Supermarkets Cut Food Inflation Peak to 4%-5% as Oil Returns to $100
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 24

UK Supermarkets Cut Food Inflation Peak to 4%-5% as Oil Returns to $100

1 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 24

Summary

  • 4%-5% is where UK supermarkets now expect food inflation to peak this year, down from their earlier 6%-7% forecast, according to the Bank of England’s regional agents survey.
  • Rising fuel costs are still pushing up pressure on prices, but they are also weakening household demand enough to limit how much supermarkets think they can charge.
  • Oil hit $100 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since May after the US-Iran ceasefire collapsed earlier this month and skirmishes disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The revised supermarket view points to a lower food-price peak even as the Middle East conflict keeps broader energy costs elevated.

Insights

Why are UK grocery bills remaining historically high even as supermarkets lower their official food inflation forecasts for 2026?
How long can UK retailers absorb $100 oil costs before they are forced to pass the burden onto strained shoppers?
Are supermarkets using the rocket and feathers effect to keep prices artificially high despite falling wholesale costs?