Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 24
Citi Says Zambia's 36% Bond Rally Can Extend if Hichilema Wins August 13 Vote
Updated
Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 24

Citi Says Zambia's 36% Bond Rally Can Extend if Hichilema Wins August 13 Vote

3 articles · Updated · Bloomberg · Jul 24

Summary

  • Zambia’s local-currency bonds have returned 36% in dollar terms this year—the best performance among emerging markets tracked by Bloomberg—and Citi says the rally could continue after the August 13 election.
  • Citi’s call hinges on President Hakainde Hichilema winning decisively enough to secure a second term, a result the bank sees as supportive for investor confidence.
  • Election risk is still keeping some investors cautious for now, with the vote acting as the main near-term test for whether Zambia’s bond surge can keep running.
  • The contrast is stark: an index of emerging-market local debt has returned just 1.35% this year, underscoring how exceptional Zambia’s rally has been.

Insights

Will Zambia's world-beating 36% bond rally crash if a surprise election upset derails its fragile economic reforms?
How might a contested Zambian election threaten global copper supplies and disrupt major international infrastructure investments?