Updated

Updated · Yale Climate Connections · Jul 16

Tropical Storm Elida Nears 1st Eastern Pacific Hurricane as NOAA Sees Up to 22 Named Systems

Updated

Updated · Yale Climate Connections · Jul 16

Tropical Storm Elida Nears 1st Eastern Pacific Hurricane as NOAA Sees Up to 22 Named Systems

Q: Why might heavy rain be more dangerous for regions that have been suffering from extreme drought?

Heavy rain can be more dangerous after extreme drought because drought-damaged ground often cannot absorb water quickly, turning a needed rain event into a flash-flood threat. Forecasters in Florida and the Southeast are highlighting that risk now. In drought-stricken areas, soil becomes baked, compacted and less porous, so intense rain runs off the surface instead of soaking in. That can overwhelm creeks, roads and drainage systems in a short time, even if the storm itself is weak or never becomes a named tropical system. Drought also weakens vegetation and root systems that normally help hold soil in place and slow runoff. When heavy rain arrives, water moves faster across the land, increasing erosion, washing sediment into streams and reducing the ability of waterways to carry floodwater safely. Weakened trees and unstable ground can add to damage. Another problem is that a downpour after drought often does less to relieve the drought than people expect. Fast runoff means less water infiltrates deeply enough to recharge soil moisture and groundwater. So an area can suffer both flooding and continued water stress. Experts describe this as a drought-flood paradox: the same dry spell that creates water shortages can also set the stage for dangerous flooding when tropical moisture or thunderstorms return. That is why meteorologists are stressing rain impacts over storm naming in the Gulf disturbance.

Q: How is the world responding to the US renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America?

The response has been mostly rejection or limited recognition outside the United States. While U.S. federal agencies such as NOAA and the National Hurricane Center now use “Gulf of America” in official maps and advisories, most of the world continues to call it the Gulf of Mexico. Mexico has been the strongest opponent, arguing the United States cannot unilaterally rename an internationally recognized body of water beyond its own territorial waters. Mexican officials have said they will keep using “Gulf of Mexico,” and Mexico has challenged Google’s labeling in court. Cuba has also rejected the U.S. change. In Europe, official naming bodies in countries including the United Kingdom, Germany, Austria and Poland have kept the traditional name. Their position is that established international usage has not changed, so official maps and publications should continue to use “Gulf of Mexico.” Global map and tech companies have taken mixed approaches rather than fully endorsing the U.S. name. Google shows “Gulf of America” for U.S. users, “Gulf of Mexico” for users in Mexico, and both names elsewhere. Apple and some other platforms also vary labels by user location or locale. Major international news organizations have largely stayed with “Gulf of Mexico,” sometimes noting that the U.S. government uses “Gulf of America.” Overall, the practical result is a split: the new name is used in U.S. federal contexts, but internationally the traditional name remains dominant.

3 articles · Updated · Yale Climate Connections · Jul 16

Elida is likely to strengthen into the Eastern Pacific’s first hurricane by Thursday evening after forming as the basin’s fifth named storm, about nine days ahead of the seasonal pace.
Waters of 84-86 F south of Baja California are fueling intensification, with Elida expected to stay a hurricane through Saturday before drier air, stronger shear and cooler waters weaken it into a post-tropical system early next week.
The storm is forecast to remain far from land and is not expected to threaten Baja California, while another disturbance in the same region has a high chance of becoming the next named storm, Fausto, by early next week.
NOAA has projected as many as 22 named Eastern Pacific systems this season under what could be a record-strong El Niño, versus a 1991-2020 average of 15 storms and a record 27 in 1992.
Atlantic activity remains constrained by strong Caribbean wind shear, though a Gulf-to-Southeast disturbance still carries a 20% seven-day development chance and could bring up to 6 inches of rain to parts of Florida.