Updated
Updated · FOX 13 Tampa · Jul 15
NHC Tracks 20% Gulf Disturbance as 10% Africa Wave Adds Florida Rain Risk
Updated
Updated · FOX 13 Tampa · Jul 15

NHC Tracks 20% Gulf Disturbance as 10% Africa Wave Adds Florida Rain Risk

3 articles · Updated · FOX 13 Tampa · Jul 15

Summary

  • A northeastern Gulf disturbance carries a 20% chance of development over the next seven days and could bring heavy rain and flooding risk to Florida starting Saturday.
  • The National Hurricane Center says the system has a 0% chance through the next two days, with any low pressure expected to form in the northeastern Gulf and move northeast between Saturday and next Wednesday.
  • Warm Gulf waters in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees may support organization, but land interaction, wind shear and dry air could still prevent a defined circulation from forming.
  • A second tropical wave off the Cabo Verde Islands has a 10% seven-day development chance, though forecasters say it is heading into less favorable conditions by the weekend.
  • Even without tropical-storm formation, the Gulf system is expected to spread tropical downpours and higher moisture across Florida and parts of the Southeast; if winds reach 39 mph, it would be named Bertha.

Insights

As El Niño quiets the Atlantic, are super-heated coastal waters spawning a new breed of dangerous 'homegrown' hurricanes?
Are seasonal hurricane forecasts becoming obsolete as local ocean heat waves create unpredictable threats just offshore?