Which undecided voters could still decide the closest Senate contests in Michigan, Texas, Maine, and Kansas?

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The late deciders most likely to matter are the small but still movable blocs in each state, especially uncommitted voters in Texas and Kansas who lean Republican or Republican-leaning. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed’s lead appears to rest on strong Democratic consolidation, so the remaining swing voters are a relatively narrow pool of undecided or soft supporters who could still move, even though the race has tilted toward him. Other polling has shown only a small undecided share there, suggesting Michigan may be less about a large undecided bloc than about whether late-breaking voters break enough toward Mike Rogers to tighten the gap. Texas has a more clearly identifiable late-deciding group. CNN’s polling says at least 1 in 8 likely voters could still change their mind, and among the uncommitted voters, at least 6 in 10 are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents. That makes right-leaning undecideds, along with some Libertarian-leaning voters in other surveys, the bloc most capable of deciding whether James Talarico’s edge holds or Ken Paxton recovers. Maine may have the fewest true undecideds. More than 9 in 10 likely voters say they are locked in, so the contest between Susan Collins and Troy Jackson is more likely to be decided by a very small slice of late movers, including moderates and older women who remain closely divided. Kansas resembles Texas most closely. The race is close, but many undecided voters there also lean Republican or Republican-leaning, meanin…

CNN Polls Put Democrats Up 6 Points in Texas, 4 in Kansas

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CNN Polls Put Democrats Up 6 Points in Texas, 4 in Kansas

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