NFL Underdogs Cover at 42-34-3 Clip Through 69 Games as Big Favorites Stumble

3 articles · Updated · Yahoo Sports · Oct 14

Five weeks into the 2026 NFL season, underdogs are beating the number at a 42-34-3 rate even though favorites have won 49 of 69 games outright.
Big chalk has been especially weak: teams favored by 6 points or more are 18-7 straight up but only 7-15-3 against the spread, while prime-time favorites are 4-12 ATS with 10 outright losses.
Totals trends are also sharpening, with the under 6-2 when closing totals are 40 or lower and the over 8-2 when totals reach 50-plus.
Week 6 matchups reflecting those patterns include Bills-Raiders at a week-high 53.5 total, Cowboys-Packers at 53, and Ravens-Browns carrying five straight series overs despite Baltimore laying 5.5.
Houston-Jacksonville in London rounds out the highlighted slate, with the Texans 4-1 SU/ATS as underdogs since Week 12 last season and the Jaguars on a 12-1 regular-season run.