Brazil Stocks Surge as Flávio Bolsonaro’s 47% Vote Makes Him 80% Favorite
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Oct 5
Brazil Stocks Surge as Flávio Bolsonaro’s 47% Vote Makes Him 80% Favorite
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Oct 5
Summary
EWZ jumped more than 12% on Monday, Brazil’s Bovespa rose 8%, and U.S.-listed Itau Unibanco and Banco Bradesco climbed 15% and 19% after the first-round vote.
Flávio Bolsonaro won more than 47% of ballots and finished nearly 2 percentage points ahead of Lula, overturning expectations that the incumbent would lead the initial count.
Prediction markets quickly repriced the runoff: Kalshi lifted Bolsonaro’s win odds to above 80% from about 60%, while Polymarket moved to 85% from 63%.
Investors view Bolsonaro as more market-friendly because he is promising greater fiscal discipline, a key issue with Brazil’s deficit-to-GDP ratio near 10% in June.
Brazil’s Oct. 25 runoff now pits Lula—seeking a fourth term and returned to office in 2022—against Jair Bolsonaro’s son in a race with growing market stakes.