Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Oct 5
Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Brazil Vote With 47%, Setting Oct. 25 Runoff With Lula
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Oct 5

Flávio Bolsonaro Leads Brazil Vote With 47%, Setting Oct. 25 Runoff With Lula

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Oct 5

Summary

  • 47.03% for Flávio Bolsonaro versus 45.16% for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sent Brazil’s presidential race to an Oct. 25 runoff, with Bolsonaro’s allies also taking a Senate majority.
  • The result marked the far right’s strongest showing since Brazil’s 1985 return to democracy, extending a pattern in which the right has outperformed final polls since 2014.
  • Economic grievance, backlash against cultural change, polarization and weakening democratic guardrails helped drive Bolsonaro’s surge, according to the analysis.
  • A Bolsonaro presidency could deepen Brazil’s rightward shift, strengthen ties with Washington and open the way to a pardon for Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a 2022 coup.

Insights

As cartels rule the Amazon and local states bypass Brasília for foreign deals, is Brazil's federal authority quietly collapsing?
Will the global battle for rare earths force foreign powers to bypass Brazil's paralyzed capital and deal directly with local factions?
With surging debt and compromised courts, can whoever wins the October 4 election actually guarantee any international agreements?