Minnesota Could See Northern Lights on Sept. 8-9 as 8 States Enter NOAA Forecast

Q: Could a sudden shift in Earth's magnetic field turn tonight's faint aurora forecast into a spectacular, multi-colored light show?

No. A dramatic aurora upgrade tonight would not come from a sudden shift in Earth’s own magnetic field. It would come from space weather — especially stronger solar wind, additional coronal mass ejections, and a favorable southward orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field, known as Bz. Forecasters say Earth is being hit by a “convoy” of solar material, with at least one G1 minor geomagnetic storm already triggered and more impacts possible through Sept. 8–9. If later arrivals push conditions to G2, the aurora could brighten, expand farther south, and show more structure and color than the current faint forecast suggests. The key variable is not a rapid change in Earth’s field itself, but how the incoming solar magnetic field couples with Earth’s magnetosphere. When Bz turns strongly southward, it allows solar energy and particles to enter more efficiently, often intensifying auroras quickly. That can produce brief substorms and more vivid greens, reds, purples, and pinks. By contrast, shifts in Earth’s main magnetic field happen over years to thousands of years, not over a single evening. Even the long-term weakening of Earth’s field is not something that would suddenly transform tonight’s display. So the real wildcard is the sun. If incoming CMEs arrive at the right time and with favorable magnetic orientation, a low-end aurora forecast can still turn into a much brighter, more colorful show, especially in Alaska, Canada, and parts of the northern U.S.

3 articles · Updated · AOL · Sep 9

Minnesota has a low chance to see the northern lights on Sept. 8 and 9, with NOAA including eight U.S. states in its latest aurora forecast.
NOAA said Alaska has the strongest viewing odds, while states on or near the U.S.-Canada border—including Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Dakotas—face lower chances.
St. Cloud is forecast to stay mostly clear Tuesday night with a low of 59, then clear again Wednesday with patchy fog and a low of 51, though cloud cover and light pollution can still limit visibility.
auroras form when charged particles from solar flares or coronal mass ejections hit Earth's magnetosphere and collide with oxygen and nitrogen in the atmosphere.