NOAA Issues G2 Storm Watch as Solar Eruptions Push Aurora Risk to New York

Q: With only a 15-minute warning from deep-space satellites, will the Northern Lights reach your backyard tonight or fizzle out completely?

Probably yes for northern-tier locations, but it is far from guaranteed anywhere farther south. The setup is favorable: three CMEs from AR4549 are due between late Oct. 8 and Oct. 11, and NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center has a G2, or moderate, geomagnetic storm watch for Oct. 9. That level has previously pushed auroras as far south as New York and Idaho, while the best odds remain in Alaska, Canada and the northern U.S. The catch is that aurora forecasts stay uncertain until the storm is almost on top of Earth. Spacecraft near the L1 point, such as ACE and DSCOVR, can measure the solar wind and the CME’s magnetic field only about 15 to 60 minutes before impact. The most important factor is whether the CME’s magnetic field turns southward. If it does, it couples efficiently with Earth’s field and the auroral oval can expand quickly. If it does not, the display can underperform or fizzle. So whether the lights reach your backyard tonight depends on two things: where you are and what the CME looks like when it arrives. If you are in the northern states, your chances are real. If you are farther south, you need the storm to reach the upper end of G2 or stronger, plus clear, dark skies and a low northern horizon. The smartest approach is to watch NOAA’s real-time aurora and Kp updates this evening. If Kp climbs to 5 or 6 and stays there, northern U.S. viewers have a credible shot.

3 articles · Updated · abcnews.com · Oct 8

Thursday night's watch covers a moderate G2 geomagnetic storm that could make auroras visible across parts of the northern U.S. into Friday morning, including as far south as New York, Wisconsin and Washington state.
Tuesday's Earth-bound coronal mass ejection, tied to a moderate solar flare, prompted the alert; NOAA expects mostly minor activity with periods of moderate storming, while the UK Met Office sees a slight chance of stronger G3 conditions.
NOAA said any technology impacts should be minor and manageable, but skywatchers' odds will hinge on the CME's arrival time, cloud cover and the orientation of its magnetic field.
Another CME from a smaller flare is expected to deliver only a glancing blow over the weekend, keeping solar conditions unsettled and potentially extending aurora chances over the next few days.