Global Economy Defies Iran War Gloom as Stocks Rebound 19% to 27%

3 articles · Updated · Fortune · Aug 30

Six months after the Feb. 28 attacks on Iran, the global economy has avoided the recession and oil-shock catastrophe many feared, even though the war has touched nearly every sector.
U.S. stocks staged the clearest reversal after a late-March bottom: the Dow has climbed nearly 19%, the S&P 500 almost 22%, and the Nasdaq 27%, with AI enthusiasm offsetting some war-related drag.
Brent crude still sits about 20% above prewar levels after spiking near $120 a barrel, pushing jet fuel costs 70% above 2025 averages and prompting airlines such as Lufthansa to cut 20,000 short-haul flights.
Fertilizer prices peaked 44% above prewar levels, squeezing farmers and threatening harvests, while the World Food Programme warns tens of millions could be pushed deeper into hunger as transport costs rise.
The disruption has also accelerated energy shifts—EV sales rose 110% in Singapore, 180% in New Zealand and 300% in Colombia—while Trump-linked businesses and investments have profited from defense and oil holdings.