Updated
Updated · CalMatters · Aug 20
Median Strategies Retracts Fake LA Poll as 21-Year-Old's 'Experiment' Sparks Betting Fraud Fears
Updated
Updated · CalMatters · Aug 20

Median Strategies Retracts Fake LA Poll as 21-Year-Old's 'Experiment' Sparks Betting Fraud Fears

3 articles · Updated · CalMatters · Aug 20

Summary

  • Median Strategies pulled its Los Angeles mayoral poll after admitting the Karen Bass survey was fabricated and should not be treated as genuine data.
  • A 21-year-old recent graduate told The Guardian he ran the site to test whether fake polls could penetrate the political ecosystem after a Michigan polling miss.
  • The bogus poll was amplified by local media and Bass's campaign, which deleted an X post after citing the survey as legitimate.
  • Prediction markets showed immediate trading after the post: AP tracked thousands of Polymarket trades from about 20 accounts in 6 minutes, while Kalshi odds on a Bass win rose from 63 to 65.
  • Pollsters and campaign strategists called the episode an ethical breach and a warning that unvetted surveys could distort both election coverage and political money flows.

Insights

How did a fake poll from an account with twenty followers fool a major mayoral campaign and news outlets?
Could the rapid spread of this fake mayoral data expose a critical flaw in how modern elections are vetted?