Fed September Hike Odds Fall Below 30% as Q3 Growth Estimate Drops Nearly 2 Points
Updated
Updated · tastylive · Aug 18
Fed September Hike Odds Fall Below 30% as Q3 Growth Estimate Drops Nearly 2 Points
3 articles · Updated · tastylive · Aug 18
Summary
September rate-hike odds have swung to roughly 70/30 against a 25-basis-point move, while a second increase once priced for 2027 has largely disappeared from market expectations.
Nearly 2 percentage points have been cut from the Atlanta Fed’s Q3 GDPNow estimate since early August, after negative payrolls, 103,000 downward job revisions and soft consumer and wholesale inflation data signaled weakening demand.
Core-services disinflation is driving much of the cooling in prices, suggesting households are pulling back rather than simply benefiting from an easing Iran-war oil shock.
Gold and silver had already diverged from the higher-real-yields story by holding firm and then rising, while the dollar reversed an almost three-month uptrend into August.
This week’s Fed minutes and PMI surveys could test whether stocks near record highs can keep ignoring a softer economy, especially with S&P 500 futures volume at its lightest since Christmas week.