Warsh Faces Jackson Hole Test as $30 Trillion Treasury Market Sells Off

3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Aug 24

Friday’s Jackson Hole speech has become a high-stakes moment for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, with investors demanding clearer proof the central bank will keep fighting inflation.
Bond traders are on edge because Trump’s tax-and-spending plans, the Iran war and a US national debt above $40 trillion have intensified inflation fears and driven a sharp Treasury sell-off.
The $30 trillion Treasury market has stayed under pressure even after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pledged to at least double government bond buybacks; long-dated yields have climbed back toward their highest since 2007.
Warsh has signaled he may avoid traditional rate guidance and focus on broader themes such as productivity and demographics, a stance analysts warn could add volatility after his July press conference was criticized as unclear.
Markets still expect the Fed to hold rates in September, though at least one and possibly two quarter-point increases are priced in by mid-2027 as Trump presses publicly for cuts.