CSU Keeps 2026 Hurricane Forecast at 9 Storms as Florida Faces 44% Named-Storm Risk
Updated
Updated · Palm Beach Post · Aug 5
CSU Keeps 2026 Hurricane Forecast at 9 Storms as Florida Faces 44% Named-Storm Risk
3 articles · Updated · Palm Beach Post · Aug 5
Summary
Colorado State University’s Aug. 5 update still calls for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season with 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane.
A strong El Niño is the main reason: CSU said rising confidence in powerful Pacific warming should boost Atlantic wind shear and suppress storm formation and intensification.
Florida nevertheless remains the most exposed state, with a 44% chance of a named storm coming within 50 miles, a 22% chance for a hurricane and a 10% chance for a major hurricane.
Monroe County carries Florida’s highest county-level named-storm risk at 20%, ahead of Miami-Dade at 16%, while CSU said landfall odds across the U.S. coastline remain well below long-term averages.
The forecast, which for the first time incorporates the Ai2 Climate Emulator, comes with a warning that even a quiet season can turn active locally if a single hurricane makes landfall.