Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 5
S&P 500's 5% 4-Day Surge Echoes 2000 Peak as Microsoft Jumps 27%
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 5

S&P 500's 5% 4-Day Surge Echoes 2000 Peak as Microsoft Jumps 27%

3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Aug 5

Summary

  • BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky said the S&P 500's more than 5% rise over four sessions into a 52-week high is a rare pattern seen only three other times in 30 years.
  • Those prior instances came in April 1999, March 21, 2000 and November 2020; Krinsky noted the 2000 signal appeared a day before the dot-com bubble's peak, while 2020 led to a sustained breakout.
  • Microsoft's nearly 27% four-day rebound also worries him because its only larger rally came in 2000, after the stock had already fallen 60% from a record high.
  • Microsoft hit another all-time high on July 31, 2025, then dropped 37% over 11 months before this rebound, a setup Krinsky says could mirror a failed momentum bounce rather than a durable turn.
  • Krinsky stopped short of calling a definitive top, but said July's unwind and the market's rotation from momentum to value and back leave investors vulnerable if the latest rally becomes a selling opportunity.

Insights

With Microsoft mirroring its historic 1999 surge, could the current AI frenzy suddenly collapse and leave late buyers exposed?
If the S&P 500 is flashing a rare dot-com era warning, are investors blindly walking into a massive market trap?