Kalshi Traders Give S&P 500 2-in-3 Odds of Hitting 8,000 in 2026
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 6
Kalshi Traders Give S&P 500 2-in-3 Odds of Hitting 8,000 in 2026
2 articles · Updated · CNBC · Aug 6
Summary
Kalshi contracts now imply a roughly 67% chance the S&P 500 will trade above 8,000 in 2026 after the index pushed to fresh records.
Just 3.6% below that level at Wednesday's close, the benchmark paused after a 5.5%-plus four-day rally that sharply lifted traders' expectations.
That surge was fueled by easing U.S.-Iran tensions, strong earnings and broader market participation, even after June and July saw investors rotate out of some AI momentum names.
Kalshi traders are also turning more bullish on the near term, assigning about a one-in-three chance that the S&P 500 crosses 8,200 this year.
Analysts including Truist Wealth say rising earnings estimates and resilient growth still fit a continuing bull market rather than an end to the AI-led advance.