Why would a TV host reject his own network’s Texas poll, and what do multiple surveys really suggest about this closely watched Senate race?

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Hannity’s rejection of Fox’s own poll appears less about a methodological flaw than about political interpretation. The Fox survey was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, a polling team widely treated as credible, and it sampled 1,006 Texas registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points. On air, Hannity offered no evidence that the poll was unsound; he simply said he did not believe it, while arguing that Paxton’s endorsements and other political signals pointed the other way. In practice, TV hosts often respond to polls through the lens of messaging, ideology or skepticism about whether one snapshot matches their expectations. What the broader evidence shows is not that the race is settled, but that it is genuinely competitive. Fox found James Talarico ahead 51% to 48%. Texas Southern University found him up 47% to 45%. Another recent Texas poll put him ahead 45% to 40%. The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project, meanwhile, found a virtual tie at 43% to 42% for Paxton. Taken together, those surveys suggest a narrow race with Talarico either slightly ahead or effectively even, not a clear runaway for either side. The common pattern across polls is that Talarico is running strongly with independents, younger voters, women, Latino voters and Black voters, while Paxton remains solid with core Republican and older voters but has shown some softness with independents and a slice of Republicans. That makes the race close, fluid and un…

Fox News Poll Puts Talarico Up 51-48 on Paxton as Hannity Rejects His Network’s Survey

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Fox News Poll Puts Talarico Up 51-48 on Paxton as Hannity Rejects His Network’s Survey

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