Canada's June Trade Surplus Seen Narrowing to $2.5 Billion as Oil Prices Drop 15%
Updated
Updated · tmgm.com · Aug 4
Canada's June Trade Surplus Seen Narrowing to $2.5 Billion as Oil Prices Drop 15%
1 articles · Updated · tmgm.com · Aug 4
Summary
$2.5 billion is TD Securities' forecast for Canada's June merchandise trade surplus, down from $4.2 billion in May and below the $3.0 billion market view.
A roughly 15% drop in crude prices during June is expected to shrink energy export values, the main driver of the narrower surplus.
Non-energy exports should cushion the hit, with auto production staying firm and non-energy manufacturing sales estimated to rise another 2.2% in June.
Stronger imports are also expected to compress the surplus, though TD said the real trade balance may decline less sharply without the effect of lower commodity prices.