Dallas Fed Says 15% Oil Shock Cuts US Growth 0.3% in 2026 Iran War
Updated
Updated · aogr.com · Aug 3
Dallas Fed Says 15% Oil Shock Cuts US Growth 0.3% in 2026 Iran War
3 articles · Updated · aogr.com · Aug 3
Summary
A Dallas Fed white paper found a 15% global oil supply disruption tied to the 2026 Iran war would trim annualized U.S. real GDP growth by 0.3%, versus 1.7% for the rest of the world.
The bank used a 15% shock as a proxy for a Strait of Hormuz closure, noting about 5% of prewar flows through the strait have shifted to other routes.
Compared with 1980, the same modeled 15% supply loss would have cut U.S. growth by 5.6%, highlighting a roughly twentyfold drop in U.S. exposure to major oil disruptions.
Shale-driven gains turned the United States from a net oil importer into a net exporter, while oil spending fell from nearly 8% of GDP around 1980 to 3% in 2024 and electricity, hybrids and EVs reduced oil dependence.
The paper says the model closely matched March-May 2026 WTI spot and futures prices, reinforcing its broader conclusion that stronger domestic energy production has made the U.S. far more resilient than most economies.