US Reserve Releases May Miss Oil Market as Iran Holds Sway Over 20% Chokepoint

1 articles · Updated · Tehran Times · Aug 4

HFI Research said proposed US strategic petroleum releases would not fix the oil market’s backwardation, even if Washington adds 70 million barrels to bring total releases to 200 million.
0.5 to 0.6 million barrels a day is too slow to calm traders, the report argued, because the market is focused on immediate supply rather than headline reserve volumes.
The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of global oil output, and the analysis says Iran’s leverage over that route keeps a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices.
That leaves Washington in a bind: threats toward Iran can intensify fears of disruption in the strait, potentially pushing oil prices higher instead of easing them.