Greg Fleming Warns $40 Trillion U.S. Debt Could Pressure Long-Term Rates

2 articles · Updated · Fortune · Aug 3

$40 trillion in U.S. debt has become Greg Fleming’s top economic worry, with the Rockefeller Capital Management CEO saying persistent deficits now overshadow inflation, markets and AI.
5% to 7% of GDP annual deficits during near-full employment alarm Fleming because Washington shows little urgency to change course, while federal interest costs already exceed defense spending.
$39 trillion was crossed in mid-March, net interest is projected above $1 trillion in fiscal 2026, and debt held by the public topped 100% of GDP in April for the first time since World War II.
Kevin Warsh’s Fed faces a harder backdrop, Fleming said, because AI-driven productivity may be disinflationary but an energy shock and heavy borrowing could still push up long-end rates.
137% of GDP within a decade is one Brookings estimate, underscoring Fleming’s broader point that debt is becoming a structural risk even as he remains bullish on long-term U.S. wealth creation.