Kalshi Traders See July Jobs Below 85,000 Consensus, Put 47% Odds on Over 80,000
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 3
Kalshi Traders See July Jobs Below 85,000 Consensus, Put 47% Odds on Over 80,000
1 articles · Updated · CNBC · Aug 3
Summary
Friday’s July payrolls report is expected by economists to show 85,000 new jobs, but Kalshi traders imply a softer outcome with only a 47% chance the total tops 80,000.
Kalshi pricing clusters the report in a lower range: traders give 60% odds of more than 70,000 jobs, about one-in-three odds of fewer than 60,000, and just over one-in-three odds of a six-figure gain.
A stronger surprise is still possible, with contracts assigning a 41% chance that payrolls exceed 90,000 even as the market leans below the Dow Jones consensus.
Kalshi’s June signal overstated hiring strength — traders had put 63% odds on more than 125,000 jobs, but the official report showed only 57,000 added.