Updated
Updated · continuumeconomics.com · Aug 4
U.S. July ADP Jobs Seen Rising 15,000, Led by Private Services
Updated
Updated · continuumeconomics.com · Aug 4

U.S. July ADP Jobs Seen Rising 15,000, Led by Private Services

2 articles · Updated · continuumeconomics.com · Aug 4

Summary

  • 15,000 jobs is the implied July ADP gain from weekly ADP data through July 11, with analysts expecting all of the increase to come from private services when the report is released on August 5.
  • Private services are expected to be led by education and health, though likely below the 48,000 increase that category posted in June's ADP report.
  • June ADP payrolls rose 98,000, but forecasters see less room for a July rebound in leisure and hospitality because ADP already showed that sector up 2,000 last month.
  • Lower U.S. initial jobless claims point to a firmer July nonfarm payrolls reading, and analysts expect private payrolls to outperform ADP by about 45,000 even if the ADP report slows.

Insights

Why are U.S. jobless claims falling while private sector hiring simultaneously hits a sudden wall?
If healthcare is the only sector driving job growth, is the broader labor market masking a deeper freeze?