Indonesia Weighs 360 Million-Tonne 2026 Nickel Quota as Policy Shift Threatens $17,500 Prices
Updated
Updated · BusinessLine · Jul 21
Indonesia Weighs 360 Million-Tonne 2026 Nickel Quota as Policy Shift Threatens $17,500 Prices
2 articles · Updated · BusinessLine · Jul 21
Summary
Indonesia is considering lifting its 2026 nickel mining quota to about 360 million tonnes from 250-260 million, a move that would mark the first meaningful easing of supply restrictions this year.
The proposed increase aims to ease feedstock shortages and support production growth, and analysts say it could pressure nickel prices that recently rebounded on expectations of tighter Indonesian policy.
Nickel traded around $16,950 a tonne, up more than 1.5% in the past week but down 4% over the past month; BMI expects prices to moderate in H2 even after raising its 2026 forecast to $17,000.
Indonesia supplies about 60% of global refined nickel, leaving its quota policy as the market's main swing factor as 2026 balances look tight—INSG sees a 32,000-tonne deficit, while BMI still forecasts a 154,000-tonne surplus.