120.6 million wmt of nickel ore was consumed by Indonesia's domestic smelters in January-June, equal to 46.2% of the 260-270 million wmt 2026 RKAB quota.
That pace points to weaker downstream demand ahead of the July 31 RKAB revision deadline, with current usage lagging the level needed to fully absorb approved allocations.
Late-Q3 and Q4 rains are expected to disrupt mining and ore transport, making it harder for producers to use their quotas even if authorities raise them to 280-300 million wmt.
Integrated smelters could still face ore shortages because alternative supply is limited and Philippine imports are expected to decline toward year-end.
The market outlook remains neutral to slightly bullish, hinging on RKAB approvals, weather disruptions and import volumes.