Updated
Updated · Fibre2fashion.com · Jul 22
Turkey Survey Cuts 2026 GDP Growth View to 3.1% as Markets See 37% Rate Hold
Updated
Updated · Fibre2fashion.com · Jul 22

Turkey Survey Cuts 2026 GDP Growth View to 3.1% as Markets See 37% Rate Hold

3 articles · Updated · Fibre2fashion.com · Jul 22

Summary

  • 3.1% is the new 2026 GDP growth forecast in the CBRT monthly survey, down from 3.2%, while the 2027 projection stayed at 4.1%.
  • 37% is still the expected policy rate for the July 23 CBRT meeting, with respondents continuing to price in rate cuts from September and a 12-month average rate of 29.4%.
  • 31.6% is the implied July annual inflation reading, down from 32.2% in June, but the 12-month inflation expectation edged up to 24.0% from 23.8% as the 24-month view eased to 17.8%.
  • $49.2 billion remained the expected 2026 current account deficit, while the 2027 forecast widened to $43.3 billion from $42.5 billion; the rolling 12-month deficit stood at $37.3 billion in May.

Insights

As markets bet on rate cuts, why do global banks warn Turkey's inflation fight is far from over?
Can Turkey's economic policy succeed while the shadow of the Iran war looms over its inflation and currency?