ECB, CBRT Seen Holding Rates July 23 as 20% Oil Jump Fuels ECB September Hike Bets
Updated
Updated · Daily Sabah · Jul 19
ECB, CBRT Seen Holding Rates July 23 as 20% Oil Jump Fuels ECB September Hike Bets
3 articles · Updated · Daily Sabah · Jul 19
Summary
July 23 decisions from the ECB and Türkiye’s CBRT are expected to leave rates unchanged, with all 74 economists in the Reuters poll seeing the ECB deposit rate staying at 2.25% and most forecasters keeping the CBRT at 37%.
A 20% rebound in oil prices after renewed U.S.-Iran tensions has clouded the inflation outlook, pushing markets to price in two more ECB hikes this year and lifting economist support for a September move.
The ECB’s dilemma is sharpened by eurozone inflation still at 2.8% versus its 2% target even as growth stays weak—2026 growth was cut again to 0.5% after a 0.2% first-quarter contraction.
Türkiye faces a similar balancing act: June inflation slowed to 32.1% and monthly price growth fell to 0.99%, but only one of 33 economists surveyed expected a cut this week, with September still the median timing for easing.