Ryan Fox Withdraws From 3M Open 1 Day After Open Championship Win

Q: Will Scottie Scheffler’s overwhelming odds finally break his seven-month winless streak at the 3M Open?

Probably not, at least not at his current price. Scheffler is the clear favorite at the 3M Open, and the case for him is obvious: he is the world No. 1, leads this field in key strokes-gained categories, arrives off a T4 at The Open, and TPC Twin Cities should suit his elite iron play in what is usually a low-scoring event. On pure form and talent, no one in this field matches him. But overwhelming odds do not make a win likely in golf the way they might in other sports. At +270, the market is pricing Scheffler as if he wins this event roughly 27% of the time. Independent modeling cited in the background material puts his win probability far lower, around 4.7%, making him the most overpriced outright bet in the field despite his dominance. That does not mean he cannot win; it means the betting market may be overreacting to his reputation and consistency. There are also practical hurdles. This is Scheffler’s debut at both the 3M Open and TPC Twin Cities, and since Matthew Wolff won the inaugural event in 2019, every winner here has had prior course experience. He is also coming straight from the Open Championship, which means a quick turnaround and a sharp shift from links golf to a birdie-heavy PGA Tour setup. So Scheffler has the best chance of anyone in the field to end the seven-month drought, but the odds suggest more certainty than the evidence supports. He is the most likely winner, not a likely winner.

3 articles · Updated · GOLF.com · Jul 20

Ryan Fox left the 3M Open field Monday morning, a day after his breakthrough Open Championship victory had installed him at +2500 to win in Minnesota.
Scottie Scheffler became the clear betting favorite at +270 after finishing tied for fourth at the Open Championship and ending the major season without a win.
Kurt Kitayama, the defending 3M Open champion, opened as a distant second choice at +1900, followed by Maverick McNealy at +2100 and Hideki Matsuyama at +2500.
The PGA Tour resumes this week in Minnesota after the final major, with Fox's withdrawal removing one of the event's most prominent post-Open storylines.