Updated

Updated · PGA TOUR · Jul 20

Scottie Scheffler Debuts at 3M Open, Leading 144-Golfer Field Before 3 FedExCup Events

Updated

Updated · PGA TOUR · Jul 20

Scottie Scheffler Debuts at 3M Open, Leading 144-Golfer Field Before 3 FedExCup Events

Q: Can the world's best golfer conquer a course where no first-timer has won since its inaugural event in 2019?

Yes — Scottie Scheffler can absolutely win at TPC Twin Cities, but the course history makes it less automatic than his world No. 1 status suggests. Scheffler arrives as the clear class of the 3M Open field. He leads the FedExCup, is the heavy betting favorite, and remains the PGA TOUR’s most complete player statistically, especially in strokes gained, greens in regulation and birdie production. On a course that routinely yields low scores, those strengths matter. TPC Twin Cities is built for aggressive scoring if a player controls approach shots and converts putts, and Scheffler’s all-around game fits that profile. The main counterweight is experience. This is Scheffler’s first start at the 3M Open and his first competitive look at TPC Twin Cities. Since Matthew Wolff won the inaugural event in 2019, every champion here has already seen the course before. That does not make a debut win impossible, but it suggests local knowledge has mattered on a layout with water hazards, penal misses and a target-golf feel that rewards precise decision-making. There is also a broader pattern: only one of Scheffler’s many PGA TOUR wins has come in his first appearance at an event. That is a modest caution flag, especially on a course where familiarity appears useful. Still, if anyone is equipped to break that trend, it is Scheffler. He is good enough to overcome the first-timer angle, but history says it is a real obstacle rather than a trivial footnote.

Q: With betting models flagging the favorite, who is the true data-backed value pick to cause an upset at the 3M Open?

Ben Kohles is the clearest data-backed value pick to upset Scottie Scheffler at the 3M Open. The strongest case comes from betting-model analysis that ranks Kohles No. 1 in the field for value, despite long outright odds around +6000. That model gives him a materially higher win probability than the market does, making him the biggest positive edge on the board. The key driver is his approach play: Kohles grades in the 92nd percentile in Strokes Gained: Approach, a critical stat at TPC Twin Cities, where precision into bentgrass greens is heavily rewarded. That fit matters because Twin Cities is less about surviving and more about scoring. Calm conditions and a course that has recently yielded very low numbers put a premium on iron play, birdie chances and controlled aggression. Kohles’s profile aligns with that better than many bigger names priced shorter than him. Scheffler remains the most likely winner, but models suggest he is overpriced for the outright market, especially given this is his tournament debut. Course history has mattered here: since Matthew Wolff won the inaugural edition in 2019, every champion has had prior experience at TPC Twin Cities. Other model-backed upset names include Johnny Keefer, whose ball-striking and recent Scottish Open form stand out, and defending champion Kurt Kitayama, who has proven course comfort. But if the question is the best pure value play based on the numbers, Kohles is the strongest answer.

3 articles · Updated · PGA TOUR · Jul 20

Scottie Scheffler arrives at TPC Twin Cities for his first 3M Open start, headlining a 144-player field with only three tournaments left before the FedExCup Playoffs field is set.
The world No. 1 holds such a large points edge that Gary Woodland, the next-highest-ranked entrant, sits 29th in the FedExCup standings, while defending champion Kurt Kitayama is 31 places behind Scheffler.
History offers the field a sliver of hope: Scheffler won the 2025 Procore Championship in his tournament debut, but the only player to win the 3M Open on a first appearance was Matthew Wolff in 2019.
TPC Twin Cities, a 7,431-yard par 71, has played as a scoring venue, with last year's record 68.84 average aided by light wind; similarly calm conditions and temperatures rising into the mid-90s are forecast again.