ESPN FPI Puts Only 2 Big 12 Teams in Top 25 as CFP Odds Trail Power Peers

Q: Why does the FPI predict a major drop-off for defending champion Indiana, ranking them only sixth?

ESPN’s FPI has Indiana sixth mainly because the model sees a weaker 2026 roster than the one that won the title, especially at quarterback. The biggest hit is the loss of Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who went No. 1 in the 2026 NFL Draft. In FPI’s preseason formula, returning starters matter heavily, and quarterbacks carry outsized value. ESPN’s methodology has treated a returning starting quarterback as worth roughly 3.3 points per game, while a transfer replacement gets only partial credit. Indiana is replacing Mendoza with TCU transfer Josh Hoover, so the model discounts that position compared with a proven incumbent. Indiana also lost major NFL talent across the roster. The Hoosiers had eight players drafted, including key contributors at receiver, running back, tight end, center, cornerback and linebacker. That kind of turnover affects the FPI because the system is built to rate underlying team strength based on returning production, prior performance, recruiting and coaching continuity—not to reward last season’s trophy by itself. So the No. 6 ranking is less a verdict that Indiana will collapse than a reflection of roster attrition after a championship run. The FPI still views the Hoosiers as elite; it just projects that teams such as Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame, Oregon and Georgia enter 2026 with slightly stronger proven personnel on paper.

Q: What key factor does the FPI miss that causes top-rated teams with NFL talent to fail?

The main thing FPI misses is not raw talent, but whether that talent functions as a winning team. It is strong at identifying NFL-caliber rosters and neutral-site strength, but weaker at capturing coaching quality, player development, chemistry, continuity, and execution under pressure. That gap helps explain why teams rated highly on paper can still fail. Florida’s 2025 season is the clearest example: FPI saw a roster with “9-3 talent,” and the NFL Draft backed that up with seven Gators selected, yet the team went 4-8 and Billy Napier was fired. The issue was not a lack of talent; it was that the talent did not translate into wins. The searched material points to several blind spots behind that disconnect: roster instability from transfers, major coaching or staff changes, weak cohesion in rebuilt units, and intangible factors such as leadership, morale, and in-season adjustments. Those are difficult for a preseason computer model to measure, even one updated for the transfer portal era. So when top-rated teams with NFL talent disappoint, the missing factor is usually team functionality rather than team ability. FPI can tell you who looks strongest on paper; it is less reliable at telling you which talented roster will stay organized, develop, and execute well enough to win consistently.

2 articles · Updated · Deseret News · Jul 11

Texas Tech and BYU are the Big 12’s only top-25 teams in ESPN’s initial 2026 FPI, with the conference placing just seven schools in the top 40.
45.9% title odds for Texas Tech and 16.5% for BYU make the league look unusually top-heavy; only nine Big 12 teams are projected to have at least a 60% chance to reach bowl eligibility.
57.9% playoff odds for Texas Tech lead a thin Big 12 CFP picture, with only BYU at 25.7% and Utah at 11.1% also above 10%.
12 SEC teams, seven Big Ten teams and four ACC teams clear that 10% CFP threshold, underscoring how far the Big 12 trails other power conferences in ESPN’s model.
0-2 in the 12-team playoff so far and still without a national champion in the CFP era, the Big 12 gets 13 regular-season chances against power-conference opponents to change that perception.