US 2-Year Treasury Yield Jumps 17 Basis Points as Hot Inflation Revives 50-Point Fed Hike Bets
Updated
Updated · CNN · Nov 10
US 2-Year Treasury Yield Jumps 17 Basis Points as Hot Inflation Revives 50-Point Fed Hike Bets
3 articles · Updated · CNN · Nov 10
Summary
The two-year Treasury yield surged 17 basis points Tuesday—its biggest one-day jump since April 2025—after core inflation rose 0.3% in October, above the 0.2% economists expected.
Chris Waller drove the repricing further, saying he could back a 50-basis-point December hike if core inflation keeps printing at 0.3% or higher, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called for at least two more quarter-point increases.
The 10-year yield climbed 10 basis points to 4.98% and briefly topped 5%, with a soft 10-year note auction adding pressure to bonds and raising borrowing-cost concerns across the economy, especially for mortgages.
Traders now price a 91% chance of a quarter-point December hike and a 9% chance of a half-point move, versus 77% odds of a quarter-point increase and 23% odds of no change a week earlier.
Stocks also weakened as higher-rate expectations spread through markets, with the S&P 500 down 0.4% and the Nasdaq off 0.74%.