$1.2 trillion marked China’s trade surplus in the first 10 months of 2026, up 9% from a year earlier even after October imports posted their strongest rise since 2021.
October exports jumped 35% and imports about 42%, with economists pointing to AI-linked demand for electronics, autos, rare earths and energy as the main engine of trade resilience.
Domestic demand remains the weak link: retail sales rose just 1.1% in the first nine months, youth unemployment sits at 18%, and a six-year property slump continues to erode household confidence.
That imbalance is pushing Chinese producers to rely more on overseas markets, heightening concerns over deflation at home and fresh trade barriers abroad, including possible US tariff or chip curbs.
Analysts say the export boom could carry into early 2027, but a slowdown in global AI spending would expose China’s recovery as Beijing still hesitates to deliver broader stimulus or rate cuts.