Updated

Updated · The New York Times · Nov 5

Tarik Skubal Tops 2026-27 MLB Free Agents With $405 Million Projection as CBA Nears Dec. 1 Expiration

Updated

Updated · The New York Times · Nov 5

Tarik Skubal Tops 2026-27 MLB Free Agents With $405 Million Projection as CBA Nears Dec. 1 Expiration

Q: With contract estimates varying by over $100 million, which desperate MLB franchise will overpay to secure Freddy Peralta?

The Cubs look like the most plausible franchise to overpay for Freddy Peralta. Chicago’s need is the clearest and most urgent. Multiple reports describe the Cubs’ rotation as one of the weakest in baseball entering 2027, and CBS Sports repeatedly linked Peralta to them because they need frontline innings and have Craig Counsell, who knows him well from Milwaukee. That combination of desperation, familiarity and market size makes them a natural candidate to push past pure value. The contract gap around Peralta is unusually wide. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel projected four years and $96 million, MLB Trade Rumors had five years and $110 million, other estimates clustered around five years and $130 million to $140 million, and Spotrac went as high as seven years and $201 million. That spread shows how volatile his market is after a season in which he struggled badly with the Mets, then rebounded with the Rays and starred in October. The White Sox, Giants, Blue Jays and Phillies all make some sense, but each has a restraint. The White Sox have a history of avoiding massive free-agent pitching deals. The Rays may simply be priced out. The Phillies and Blue Jays have other payroll and roster-balance questions. San Francisco is a viable dark horse, but Chicago’s need is more acute and more public. If Peralta lands above the middle of the market — something like five years and $130 million-plus or higher — the Cubs are the likeliest team to be the one paying the desperation premium.

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Nov 5

Tarik Skubal enters the market as the clear No. 1 free agent, projected for 9 years and $405 million after a 2026 season in which he returned from elbow surgery and finished strong.
Dec. 1 at 11:59 p.m. ET is the key deadline: once the CBA expires, MLB offseason business freezes, including trades and signings involving players on 40-man rosters.
That looming stoppage hangs over a class described as top-heavy and short on star power beyond Skubal, with Randy Arozarena, Seiya Suzuki and Sonny Gray among the next-best options.
Three NPB players also add intrigue to the market, including slugging third baseman Teruaki Sato, as teams weigh whether to move quickly before labor uncertainty shuts transactions down.