Updated

Updated · Fox News · Nov 3

Analyst Backs Alabama -26.5, Tennessee First-Half +14.5 Angle and Arkansas Under 104.5

Updated

Updated · Fox News · Nov 3

Analyst Backs Alabama -26.5, Tennessee First-Half +14.5 Angle and Arkansas Under 104.5

Q: With Aden Holloway unexpectedly suspended, can Alabama truly cover a massive 26.5-point spread against Sam Houston?

Yes, Alabama still can cover 26.5, but Holloway’s suspension makes that pick less comfortable than it looked at first. Holloway is not a marginal absence. He was Alabama’s second-leading scorer last season at 16.8 points per game and led the team in three-point shooting at 43.8%. His suspension, combined with freshman guard Anderson Diaz being doubtful, leaves Nate Oats thinner in the backcourt than expected for the opener. That matters against a big number because covering 26.5 often depends on offensive rhythm, bench creation and late-game scoring. The case for Alabama remains strong. The Crimson Tide are at home, where they open a five-game homestand, and they still have clear talent and size advantages. Oats has emphasized that this roster is bigger, deeper and more physical, and Alabama scored 111 points in an exhibition against Furman even without Holloway. Amari Allen, Qayden Samuels, Brandon Garrison and others give Alabama enough firepower to overwhelm a Sam Houston team that, while respectable after a 22-12 season and NIT appearance, is stepping up in class on the road. Still, the suspension shifts the spread from “likely blowout” to “possible but risky cover.” Alabama should win comfortably, but asking a shorthanded backcourt to win by 27 or more in the first real game of the season is a tougher bet than the original recommendation suggests. A straight Alabama win is far safer than laying 26.5.

3 articles · Updated · Fox News · Nov 3

Alabama -26.5 is the analyst’s strongest opening-night side, with Sam Houston’s depth seen as vulnerable against a Crimson Tide team returning four key players and led again by Aden Holloway.
Tennessee’s game produces a narrower betting angle: rather than backing the Volunteers for the full game, the pick is Wofford +14.5 in the first half because both teams are retooled but the Terriers have more continuity.
Arkansas is framed as a scoring favorite but not an early-season explosion candidate, leading to an under 104.5 team-total play as John Calipari is expected to emphasize sets and execution over pure pace.
The picks follow Memphis’ upset of No. 18 Iowa State on opening night, which the analyst cites after cashing a previous wager and moving into a lighter slate dominated by power programs facing smaller schools.