Why does Minnesota look comfortable in one poll while broader indicators suggest a more competitive race?

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Minnesota likely looks comfortable in the Times/Siena poll because that survey appears to be an outlier relative to the broader body of evidence, which points to a smaller but still real advantage for Peggy Flanagan. The Times/Siena poll has Flanagan ahead by 14 points, but most other recent Minnesota polling has shown a much narrower margin — often in the low single digits to mid-single digits. A recent Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon poll showed her up four points, KSTP/SurveyUSA had her ahead by three, and several polling averages have put the race around Flanagan +4 to +5. Cook Political Report’s move from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat” also reflects that the race is viewed as competitive, not safely settled. There are several reasons for the gap. One is normal polling variation: with a sample of 752 likely voters and a margin of error around four points, any single survey can land above or below the true state of the race. Another is methodology. Times/Siena used live phone interviews and its own likely-voter screen and weighting model, which can produce different results from mixed-mode or partisan-leaning surveys in the field. Campaign conditions also support a closer race than the 14-point margin suggests. The seat is open, Flanagan is tied to controversy over fraud in state programs during the current administration, Tafoya has worked to appeal to moderates, and outside groups have spent heavily enough to keep the contest active. Minnesota still leans Democratic stat…

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South Carolina Senate Race Tightens to 48%-48% as Darline Graham Faces GOP Doubts

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