Natixis Sees 0.19% Core CPI, Says September Fed Hike May Be Cycle’s Last
Updated
Updated · Kitco NEWS · Oct 9
Natixis Sees 0.19% Core CPI, Says September Fed Hike May Be Cycle’s Last
1 articles · Updated · Kitco NEWS · Oct 9
Summary
Natixis expects September core CPI to rise 0.19% and headline CPI 0.6%, arguing August’s hotter reading was driven by one-off components unlikely to repeat.
Core inflation would then hold at 2.4% year over year, with alternative gauges such as trimmed-mean, median and breadth measures still pointing to a gradually moderating underlying trend.
Energy and food are seen as the main drivers of recent headline pressure, while tariff effects and the Iran war created supply shocks that have not broadly spilled into core prices.
For the Fed, Natixis says encouraging inflation data could make September’s rate increase the only hike of the cycle, though it still pencils in a hold in late October and keeps another move in December or January as a risk.