Dodgers Lose 3-2 to Braves, Face Elimination in Atlanta

Q: Will Tarik Skubal's history of three major arm surgeries cost him a record-breaking $400 million contract in upcoming free agency?

Probably not, but it could keep him below the most aggressive projections. Skubal’s injury history is the central risk in his free agency: Tommy John surgery in 2016, flexor tendon surgery in 2022, and an elbow cleanup in 2026. For clubs considering a long-term deal into his late 30s, that matters. It is one reason industry projections are spread so widely, from the high $100 millions to as much as $500 million. Even so, the broader market signals still point to a record-setting contract for a pitcher. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported an average projection of eight years and $355 million from 27 insiders, with the biggest cluster of estimates between $325 million and $400 million. Multiple evaluators still pegged him at exactly $400 million, and some projected well beyond that. That suggests teams view the health risk as a pricing variable, not a deal-breaker. What could change is the structure. Rather than a full 10-year mega-deal at the top of the market, clubs may prefer a shorter term with a higher annual value, opt-outs, deferrals, or a large signing bonus. His postseason performance with the Dodgers could also strengthen the case that he is worth assuming the risk. So the surgeries may cost Skubal the very top-end scenario — something like $450 million to $500 million — but they are unlikely to prevent him from landing the largest guaranteed pitching contract in MLB history if bidding from the Dodgers, Mets or another deep-pocketed team holds.

3 articles · Updated · Los Angeles Times · Oct 3

A 3-2 Game 2 loss left Los Angeles tied 1-1 in the NLDS and needing wins in Atlanta to avoid an early exit after failing to capitalize on a favorable bullpen matchup.
Blake Snell lasted only four innings, issuing five walks and 90 pitches, while defensive lapses helped decide it—Teoscar Hernández turned a double into a triple before Kris Bubic's wild pitch scored the go-ahead run.
Atlanta's patchwork staff then retired 15 of the last 16 Dodgers, limiting them to six hits and blunting Freddie Freeman's homer as Shohei Ohtani went 1-for-4 with two strikeouts.
The pressure now rises with Chris Sale lined up for Game 3 on full rest in Atlanta, where the Dodgers will counter with Yoshinobu Yamamoto after splitting the first two games at home.