Updated
Updated · Sky-Hi News · Sep 21
Colorado Forecasts Above-Average Winter Precipitation as El Niño Odds Top 90%
Updated
Updated · Sky-Hi News · Sep 21

Colorado Forecasts Above-Average Winter Precipitation as El Niño Odds Top 90%

3 articles · Updated · Sky-Hi News · Sep 21

Summary

  • NOAA’s updated outlooks show Colorado with above-average precipitation from October through December, while temperatures are projected to stay near normal rather than tilt hotter.
  • More than 90% odds of a very strong fall and winter El Niño are driving that forecast, with eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface anomalies already exceeding 3°C.
  • The wet signal is strongest early: all parts of Colorado are favored for extra precipitation this fall, and southeastern counties face up to a 50% chance of above-average totals.
  • By November through January, the Western Slope loses that edge and shifts to equal odds of wetter or drier conditions, even as eastern Colorado keeps a 33%-40% chance of above-normal snowfall.
  • Only three U.S. super El Niños are on record, and Colorado’s past results were mixed, with climatologists warning warming temperatures and declining western precipitation could limit how much falls and stays as snow.

Insights

Could Colorado's historic 2026 El Niño early snowpack vanish midwinter, leaving ski resorts and reservoirs devastated by a sudden dry spell?
If parched soils absorb the early winter moisture, could Colorado still face a severe water crisis despite a supposedly historic El Niño?