Tropical Storm Fay Intensifies to 60 Mph as Atlantic Quiet Streak Extends

Q: Does this historically quiet Atlantic season signal a permanent climate shift or a deceptive calm before the storm?

This is much more likely a temporary lull than a permanent climate shift, but it is not harmless calm. The evidence points to a powerful short-term climate driver: a strengthening El Niño, possibly a historic “super” event. Forecasters from NOAA, Colorado State University and other meteorologists have tied the Atlantic’s unusually quiet season to strong upper-level winds, high vertical wind shear, dry air and Saharan dust — conditions that tear apart developing storms. That helps explain why the basin’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy is only about 4.4, roughly 7% of normal for mid-September, and why no hurricane had formed by the seasonal peak, a satellite-era record-late start. That does not mean the Atlantic has entered a lasting low-activity era. El Niño is a natural, recurring pattern, and its suppressing effect on Atlantic storms typically fades as the climate pattern changes. At the same time, long-term warming still matters: warmer oceans can make storms that do form wetter and more capable of rapid intensification. In other words, climate change may be raising storm intensity potential even while El Niño is suppressing the number of storms this year. The bigger risk is complacency. Quiet seasons can still produce damaging late-season “homegrown” systems in the Gulf or near the Southeast coast, often with shorter warning times. Fay itself is expected to stay over open water and dissipate, but the broader lesson is that a slow season start does not guarantee a quiet finish.

3 articles · Updated · Fox Weather · Sep 18

Tropical Storm Fay strengthened to 60 mph after forming from Tropical Depression Six in the Atlantic southwest of the Azores.
The National Hurricane Center said Fay is moving slowly at 3 mph, should meander through the weekend, then turn south into the central Atlantic as a dip in the jet stream steers it.
Hostile conditions are expected to halt that strengthening and eventually dissipate the storm, with forecasters saying it poses no land threat.
The Atlantic still has no hurricanes, extending the latest-ever wait for the season's first hurricane in records dating to the satellite era beginning in 1960.