China's drawdown of crude reserves and import cuts after the late-February Middle East war helped prevent the supply shock from becoming a far deeper global energy crisis, economists said.
1.4 billion barrels of Chinese strategic and commercial crude inventories let imports fall below 8 million barrels a day in May and June, easing pressure after the Strait of Hormuz disruption choked off 20% of global energy supply.
Brent had slipped to about $80 before renewed Iran-U.S. hostilities pushed it back above $100 on Wednesday, still well below early forecasts of $150 to $200 a barrel.
July and August imports then rose 22% and 6.2% month on month, signaling China may be returning to the market and testing the buffer that has restrained prices.
53% of China's energy mix still comes from coal, helping cushion its economy, but analysts warn oil could stay at $85-$100 through 2027 and still hit $120 if the war drags on.