Updated
Updated · NBC News · Sep 11
U.S. August CPI Seen Rising 0.4% as Fed Weighs Rates With Oil Above $100
Updated
Updated · NBC News · Sep 11

U.S. August CPI Seen Rising 0.4% as Fed Weighs Rates With Oil Above $100

3 articles · Updated · NBC News · Sep 11

Summary

  • Friday’s CPI report is expected to show U.S. consumer prices rose 0.4% in August from July, with annual inflation holding at 3.4% ahead of next week’s Fed decision.
  • Core inflation is forecast to increase a milder 0.2%, but the reading may already understate price pressure after U.S. crude climbed above $100 a barrel and Brent topped $107 on Thursday.
  • Fed officials have tied policy to the data: Governor Christopher Waller said a hot report would argue for a hike, while Chair Kevin Warsh has called prices more concerning than the still-stable labor market.
  • August payrolls rose 162,000 and prior months were revised up, reinforcing the view that job growth is strong enough to withstand tighter policy if inflation reaccelerates.
  • The stakes reach beyond markets, with gasoline averaging $4.27 a gallon, mortgage rates at 7.07%, and producer prices rising at a 5.4% annual pace as affordability strains deepen.

Insights

Will a sudden spike in gas prices trap the Fed into raising rates just as underlying inflation finally cools?
With UK inflation unexpectedly surging, is the US economy walking into a similar trap ahead of next week's Fed meeting?
Could the booming AI industry secretly force the Federal Reserve into its first interest rate hike since 2023?