Updated

Updated · The Guardian · Sep 8

New Hampshire, Rhode Island Voters Pick 2 Key Nominees in Open Senate and Governor Tests

Updated

Updated · The Guardian · Sep 8

New Hampshire, Rhode Island Voters Pick 2 Key Nominees in Open Senate and Governor Tests

Q: Will the medical scientist's unexpected polling surge completely upend the established frontrunner in the final hours of the primary?

No. Karishma Manzur’s late surge has made the Democratic Senate primary more competitive, but the available evidence still points to Chris Pappas remaining the favorite in the closing hours. Recent polling shows genuine movement. A late University of New Hampshire poll put Pappas ahead 47% to 34%, with 18% undecided, a much narrower margin than earlier surveys. Other reporting also described Manzur gaining traction with younger and more progressive voters, and analysts said Pappas “should be worried.” That matters because New Hampshire has a history of late shifts and surprise outcomes. Still, a surge is not the same as an upset. Pappas retains major structural advantages: far stronger name recognition, broad backing from party leaders, and a huge financial edge. Reports show he raised more than $15 million, compared with roughly $415,000 for Manzur. Other polls have also shown him with a larger lead than the UNH survey, suggesting the race may be tightening without actually flipping. The key uncertainty is the large bloc of undecided voters. If Manzur were to break overwhelmingly with them and turnout among her newer supporters exceeded expectations, the race could become much closer than once expected. But based on the full picture of polling, money, endorsements and organizational strength, a complete last-minute overthrow of the frontrunner would still be an upset rather than the most likely outcome.

3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Sep 8

New Hampshire and Rhode Island voters are choosing nominees over the next two days, with an open US Senate seat in New Hampshire and Governor Dan McKee’s renomination fight leading the slate.
Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement after 3 Senate terms triggered New Hampshire’s biggest scramble: 8 Republicans are competing to replace her, while a 5-way Democratic race is led by Representative Chris Pappas.
Pappas’ Senate run also opened New Hampshire’s 1st congressional district, where Stefany Shaheen and Maura Sullivan are among Democrats seeking the nomination.
Rhode Island’s contest centers on McKee, who could become the first elected US governor since 2014 to lose renomination if Helena Buonanno Foulkes, the former CVS executive he narrowly beat in 2022, unseats him.
The primaries will shape November matchups in races that could test Trump-backed Republicans in New Hampshire and expose Democratic vulnerability in a normally safe Rhode Island governorship.